Left-Congress alliance may not win the elections but will act as a catalyst in the electroal battle
Kolkata, siyasat.net
A recently conducted opinion poll predicted that the Trinamool Congress (TMC) will return to power in West Bengal for the third time albeit with a lesser number of seats in the Assembly elections.
The opinion poll conducted by the CNX and ABP Ananda (a private news channel) showed that the TMC will get around 146 to 156 seats, while the BJP will win around 113 to 121 seats.
The magic figure in the West Bengal Assembly is 148 and the state has a total of 294 Assembly constituencies. The survey was conducted among 8,960 persons in 112 Assembly constituencies in Bengal from January 23 to February 7.
The opinion poll predicted that the TMC will face a reduction not only in the number of seats but also in terms of vote share. It bagged 211 seats and 44.9% votes it bagged in the last Assembly elections. But according to the opinion poll, it will get 42% votes in the upcoming Assembly elections.
The BJP is predicted to record a major leap in terms of number of seats and vote share since the last Assembly elections in 2016 where it only won three seats and got 10.2% votes. It showed that the saffron party’s vote share in the upcoming Assembly elections will shoot up to 37%.
Other parties are predicted to win one to three seats and get 3% votes whereas they won no seats and got 12.9% votes in the last Assembly elections. The opinion poll predicted that the AIMIM will get around 1% votes.
According to the survey Mamata Banerjee got a substantial lead over BJP State president Dilip Ghosh in terms of who the voters want to see as the next chief minister of Bengal. While 38% of those who participated in the survey preferred Mamata, 19% preferred Ghosh.
Senior TMC leader and Minister Tapas Roy said that “regardless of what surveys predict the people of Bengal will vote for Mamata Banerjee because of her development works.”
In South Bengal especially, the TMC has been the major beneficiary of Muslim support since 2011, when it first came to power. Religious leaders and influential clerics appealed to Muslim voters to support the government of Mamata Banerjee, which returned the favour with a variety of sops for the community. Muslim-dominated Malda, Murshidabad, and North Dinajpur in North Bengal, however, remained largely a Congress stronghold.
Abbas Siddiqui’s ISF could have potentially split the Bengali-speaking Muslim vote three ways among the TMC, Congress-Left, and itself — with or without direct AIMIM support. Now that the ISF has allied with the Congress-Left, the TMC could potentially benefit from a less splintered Muslim vote.
The Congress-Left-ISF alliance has accused both the TMC and BJP of creating communal polarisation, and sought to present itself as a democratic and secular front committed to highlighting issues of concern to the common man.
According to observers, the Left-Congress alliance may not win the elections but will act as a catalyst in the victory or defeat of the TMC or the BJP. “In 2019 Lok Sabha polls, a four-cornered contest helped the BJP coming up as the main opposition as the Left Front, and the Congress had fought separately. But in the assembly polls, the performance of the Left Front and the Congress alliance would be very crucial,” political analyst Biswanath Chakraborty said.
“If the alliance manages to cut into the opposition votes, it would benefit the TMC. And if it cuts into the TMC’s Muslim vote base, it would benefit the BJP. If the alliance performs well, the TMC is likely to benefit most, and the alliance fails to evoke any response then it will help the BJP,” political analyst Biswanath Chakraborty said.
Both the TMC and the BJP, however, claimed that the Left-Congress-ISF alliance is not a significant issue. “This time the elections will be between the TMC and the BJP. The role of this alliance will be to cut into some of the secular votes of the TMC to help the BJP. We are not worried about it. We have defeated the Left-Congress alliance and also the BJP in 2016. This time too they will be defeated,” senior TMC MP Sougata Ray said.
Last week In a new political alignment in poll-bound West Bengal, state Congress president Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury announced the inclusion of newly formed Indian Secular Front (ISF) of Furfura Sharif cleric Abbas Siddiqui in the Left Front-Congress alliance.
(www.siyasat.net is Ahmedabad, Gujarat, India based Website, powered by Gujarat siyasat, a Fortnightly)
An Appeal For The Sake Of Upright & Fearless Brand Of Journalism
To sustain and improve our coverage. Gujarat siyasat- a vernacular Fortnightly and English٫ Hindi Website www.siyasat.net
Your little but timely support is needed۔
Bank details، GUJARAT SIYASAT, Current Account 204720110000318, ifsc code BKID0002047 BANK OF INDIA , VASNA BRANCH, AHMEDABAD GUJARAT INDIA
Also on Phone pay, Paytm,Google pay +91 9925531111
We hope you help and see siyasat.net grow. And rejoice that your contribution has made it possible.
सत्य को ज़िंदा रखने की इस मुहिम में आपका सहयोग बेहद ज़रूरी है। आपसे मिली सहयोग राशि हमारे लिए संजीवनी का कार्य करेगी और हमे इस मार्ग पर निरंतर चलने के लिए प्रेरित करेगी। याद रखिये ! सत्य विचलित हो सकता है पराजित नहीं।
Regards,
Abdulhafiz Lakhani
editor@siyasat.net
