Coming election is going to create a great confusion in the minds and hearts of Muslims
By S. M. Anwar Hussain, siyasat.net
Assembly elections in Bihar are not very far away. It is a matter of just few months. They are supposed to be held in the months of October and November next year. BJP, JDU, RJD and Congress are supposed to be main stake holders. Small outfits are likely to align with one of these parties. Hyderabad based Owaisi ‘s AIMIM is trying to be in the fray specially in the Seemanchal area. Kerala based SDPI may also throw its hats where Muslims can influence the electoral outcome. However, the situation is not very clear, and it may remain fluid until the announcement of the election. Nitish is leading a conglomeration , consisting of different political Parties – both big and small – including BJP. But this combination will stay together or fall apart is difficult to gauge at the moment . However, internal bickering in NDA can be clearly heard and felt, specially between JDU and BJP. There are forces in Bihar BJP that appear to be in a mood to challenge the leadership of Nitish Kumar, and off and on are seen raising a voice of rebellion against Nitish. They are doing this out of their own political ambitions or at the behest of the party high command will be too early to decide. Even today Nitish has Warn his detractors both within Jo and own party.
Nitish Kumar, being an astute politician, is now a days doing a tight roping. He is seen as keeping a close watch on the movement and moves of RJD’s leader Tejaswi Yadav.
If one can believe the rumor mills working in the political corridors, Tejaswi is trying to knit an alliance with BJP under two conditions. First, the BJP should ensure the chair of the chief minister for him, and second, it should pave way for his father to come out of the imprisonment. As the gossip goes on, BJP is ready to reward him with the chair of deputy chief minister but wants to reserve the chief ministerial chair for Shshil Kumar Modi.
This throws a big challenge for Nitish Kumar. He knows well that if the strong Yadav clan decides to divorce the MY formula and go with BJP, he will be surely shun away by the BJP. Among the OBCs he has another big enemy in the person of Upendra Kushwaha, the leader of RLSP ( Rashtriya Lok Samta party) . Once his own creation and stooge, Jeetan Ram Manjhi , leader of HAM (Hindustani Awam Morcha) is also thirsty for Nitish blood. Ram Villas Paswan is considered the weather cock, and he is never trustworthy. Kurmis and Keoris used be the backbone of Nitish politics , but because of his long association with BJP, these two casts have become more communal. Nitish is trying to play his cards very shrewdly. At one side, he is trying to attract Muslims, as he knows well that if the Yadavs can add to the political weight to BJP, he can compensate it by attracting the Muslims to his side. He has recently announced some programmes to ammeloriate the hurt feelings of Muslims. One of his significant announcements in this regard is opening of minority schools in every district of Bihar.
On the one hand, he is trying to attract away the Muslim voters, on the other side, he is also trying to see that ultranationalist elements are not alienated. His volte face in the Rajya Sabha on the issue of tripple Talaque , and endorsement of the Kashmir policy are clear indicators of this.
On the Muslim side, although many cases of mob lynching have taken place, he is credited with controlling any communal flare up in the state and has assiduously and quickly countered BJB’s designs and schemes to create communal riots in Bihar. But, he is also accused of giving a free hand to Hindutwa elements to distribute swords in every Hindu house on the eve of Ram Navami, perhaps, last year.
Coming election is going to create a great confusion in the minds and hearts of Muslims. For last thirty years, they have been voting very vigorously for Laloo Yadav and his allies. They looked into him as thier Messiha. Now a kind of disappointment and disillusionment can easily be read on their faces. Also the worst defeat of RJD and allies in the recently held parliamentary elections has forced them to revisit their political course. Muslim leaders have already started jumping out of Laloo’s boat and looking for a space in the boat of Nitish Kumar.
BJP has already diminished the political value of Muslim votes. The community stands politically marginalized. And if they are pushed in a state of dilemma before the election, they are likely to further lose their political significance.
To sum up, today Muslims in Bihar are without any leadership , and BJP is going to reap the harvest if the political activists and intellectuals within the community do not sit together and agree on one political course for them. ( The writer is EX- president of Amusu, views are personal )
