Estimates from the Gujarat government indicate that while the market price of cumin (jeera) appears to be stabilizing after four months of intense volatility, overall production of the spice is expected to increase in the Rabi season of 2023–24 despite lower yields. This year’s market will be driven by farmers’ selling decisions because, observers note, there is little carry-forward stock from the previous year.
The Gujarat government’s Directorate of Agriculture (DAG) recently released the Second Advance Estimates, which put the state’s cumin yield per hectare at 7.46 quintals (100 kg equals one quintal). According to the final advance estimates of DAG for the year 2022–2023, farmers had harvested 7.77 quintals, which is slightly less than this amount. A senior DAG officer told The Indian Express, “The Second Advance Estimates should be treated as a primary survey of crop and yields have been estimated lower this year due to cloudy weather and pest attacks.”
Despite the low yield estimates, Gujarat is expected to set a new record for cumin production with 4.08 lakh tonnes (10 quintals make a tonne). The projected total production for 2022–2023 was 2.15 lakh tonnes (lt), with 3.99 lt setting the previous record in 2020–21. The production of cumin seed crop in Gujarat was estimated by the government to be 3.75 lt in 2019–20, the only other year when it stayed above three lakh tonne.
The officer stated, “The higher production is due to the higher sowing area of cumin this year.” He also mentioned that the jeera acreage in Gujarat for the Rabi season of 2023–24 has soared to 5.61 lakh hectares (lh), the highest in the state’s history and 160% higher than the average of 3.50 lh for the previous three years.
Gujarat’s cumulative acreage in 2022–2023 was just 2.75 lh. The state is India’s top producer of cumin, with Rajasthan coming in second.
The increased production projections are set against the backdrop of a stabilized jeera price of approximately Rs 25,000 per quintal since January of this year, following four months of extreme volatility during which it plummeted from Rs 65,000 in June and July to Rs 25,000.
In Gujarat’s Mehsana district, cumin prices began to fall in September and October at the Agricultural Produce Market Committee (APMC), Unjha, after reaching a peak of about 65,000 per quintal in June and July. It is the biggest wholesale market for seed spices worldwide. By late October, the price had dropped to Rs 50,000, but by January, it had dropped to Rs 25,000.
“Traders imported 250 containers of cumin from China, each containing 27 tonnes of cumin, totaling approximately 6,750 tonnes, as the price of cumin was skyrocketing on the local market.” According to Unjha APMC chairman Dinesh Patel, “this softened the price in the Indian market. However, the price of Rs 25,000 is similar to what it was at this time of year when the new harvesting season begins.” Meanwhile, at Unjha APMC, arrivals have increased as the harvesting season reaches its zenith. 10,000 bags, or about 5,500 quintals, of cumin—each containing 55 kg of cumin—were reported as arriving at the Unja mandi on Monday. Per quintal, the average cost was Rs 2,600.
The way farmers market their fresh harvest will have a significant impact, according to Piyush Patel, president of the Unjha APMC Vepari Association, an association of Unjha traders.
“The market is in a hand-to-mouth situation, and prices have stabilized as traders and whole-sellers have offloaded their stocks.
Farmers are the only players with fresh stock, and there is very little carry-forward stock. But at the same time, the combined cumin sowing area of Gujarat and Rajasthan has increased to 12.5 lh from just 8 lh last year, which will result in a larger crop size, he says. “In such a scenario, the market will be guided by farmers’ decision as to when they want to sell their harvest,” he continues.
Prices are likely to stay fixed if they stagger the delivery of their cumin.
Farmers, however, claim that this year’s cultivation expenses have increased. Aphid attacks occurred in December and January, and fungal infections surfaced in the first part of February. This meant that I had to use more pesticide, which increased the average cultivation cost to Rs 60,000 per hectare while only slightly lowering yields, according to Ashwin Meghani, a farmer from the Morbi district’s Holmadh village who has planted jeera on about two hectares. After harvest, he says, “I will sell my jeera soon because the price of Rs 25,000 is not bad.”
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