The emergence of AAP and AIMIM are likely to lead to further splintering of Opposition votes
By Abdulhafiz Lakhani Ahmedabad
After recording breaking performance in local elections in Gujarat, BJP is almost all set to get atleast 150 Assembly seats in 2022 when state will go for polls. while the Congress, it seems, has been banished from the state. The Congress would need to come up with a massive overhaul in Gujarat.
The results of Gujarat local body elections are out and BJP has managed to win a majority in 6 municipal corporations in the state. With this, BJP has also won elections in 31 district panchayats. Out of the 231 tehsil panchayat, the BJP has won in 196 while the Congress managed to win only in 33. Out of 81, BJP has recorded victories in 75 municipal corporations while the Congress won seats in 3 and other parties won seats in 3 corporations.
In the local body elections, AAP has 42 seats while Asaduddin Owaisi’s AIMIM managed to grab 7 seats out of the 8 it has fought in Godhra. In Modasa, Owaisi’s party won 9 seats and thus, the party has managed to win 16 seats. The parties have managed to record their victories in their debut elections
When compared with the result of the last elections held in 2015, one gets an idea of how things have changed in the state. BJP was considered a party which has its roots in the cities but this perception has changed now and the party has recorded its victory even in villages.
In the local body elections held in 2015, out of 972 district panchayat seats, the Congress had won 595 while BJP had won only 368 and others had won only 9 seats. In 2015, out of the 4715 seats of the tehsil panchayat, Congress had won 2555, BJP 2019 and other had won 141 seats. Out of 2675 seats of 81 municipal corporations, BJP had won 1197, Congress had won 673 and others had 205 seats. Four seats had gone to BSP in that election.
In 2015, BJP had faced problems due to the Patidar movement and this had directly benefited the Congress. A prominent figure in the Patidar movement, Hardik Patel had helped the Congress to win the election. After this, Hardik joined the Congress and he was made working president of the state Congress but this did not help the Congress much and has instead harmed it. Now in the coming days, it would be difficult for the Congress to make a comeback in the state.
The ongoing farmers’ agitation in Delhi which is continuing for the last 90 days, had no effect on the local body elections held in rural areas of Gujarat. Congress had expected that this agitation will affect the election outcomes but no such things happened.
With this performance in the local body elections in Gujarat, the state has shown that it is not bothered about problems such as inflation or unemployment.
BJP has staged its biggest win and Congress has been bruised badly while AAP and Owaisi’s party has made excellent debut in the state.
It was almost as if voters had decided to neutralize any and all threats to the ruling BJP, political observers said. For instance, Congress ally, the Bharatiya Tribal Party, was ousted in Bharuch, where it has a strong home base.
It seems particularly odd give that AAP and AIMIM– with no local cadre and no committed vote bank–managed to outflank BTP. Dilip Patel, a veteran journalist did not seem surprised at Recent result, believing firmly that the top brass of the BJP and that of AIMIM are hand-in-glove.
“That a party with no base and no cadre did so well in the municipal corporation and nagapalika elections clearly indicates that something is cooking between these two parties,” he said, citing the alleged BJP-AIMIM nexus exposed by AAP supremo Arvind Kejriwal and Gujarat’s senior advocate Yatin Oza .
“They are in a joint venture to destabilize and eliminate their secular opponents,” he added, in reference to the BJP and AIMIM. “Never before in my 40- year career have I seen a party make this much headway in 15 days of landing in the election market.
This itself raises a number of questions.” No matter how tempting it may be, the Congress cannot simply blame a conspiracy for its annihilation.
“Poor organization, poor leadership and a questionable choice of candidates are all factors in the Congress party’s washout,” Suresh Vanol, a senior journalist from Mehsana told First India. “Leaders who were in charge of the Congress campaign never even showed up,” he said, “Meanwhile, the BJP candidates were chosen in keeping with the preferences of local workers and leaders.
This gave the rank and file a personal reason for getting behind the candidates and working hard to draw voters to the poll booth.”
Vapi-based senior journalist Hiren Shah agrees. “The Congress, in its long history, once had the strongest cadre, but is faltering day by day. Its leaders show no dedication. For example, Gaurav Pandya, the AICC member from Valsad, never once set foot on the campaign trail.
Not even the state leaders came to south Gujarat to campaign,” he pointed out. A political analyst who did not wish to be named said, “Rather than the people’s mandate, this victory for the BJP seems to be the result of good EVM (electronic voting machine) ‘management’.
It is very hard to believe that AAP, AIMIM and even BSP did better than the Congress or BTP. People might say that the voters were unhappy with the Congress, and voted against them. But, in my experience voters do not vote ‘against something’.”
The death of Congress strategist Ahmed Patel last year also may have contributed to the poor performance. Though Patel was based in the Centre, he did manage to reconciled differences in the Gujarat unit to some extent, besides managing crises.
Four years ago, Patel managed to get elected to the Rajya Sabha by just one vote. Filling the seat after his death should have been easy for the Congress with the seats it won in 2017. But when the Rajya Sabha polls eventually took place, the Congress didn’t even put up a candidate, an admission that it didn’t have the numbers in Gujarat. As a result, Ahmed Patel’s seat is now with the BJP.
The BJP has made it clear that it doesn’t want to concede even an inch to the Congress in Gujarat. The party has aggressively been courting Congress leaders, particularly in Saurashtra where the Congress had performed strongly in 2017.
The party pumped in a great degree of resources to carry out a blitzkrieg on media and social media highlighting the BJP’s promises for the civic elections.The BJP outspent, outmanned and outmaneuvered the Congress in this election.
The idea for the party is to not just defeat but demoralise the opposition to such an extent that it fails to put up a fight.Unfortunately for the Congress, this seems to be the beginning of a new phase in Gujarat politics in which the BJP remains even more dominant than before.
It is important to understand here that though the BJP has been ruling Gujarat since 1998, the Congress has maintained a healthy vote share of 35 percent and above and has often held its own against the BJP at the civic election level.
But now both the Congress’ vote share and its resistance at the civic level seems to be reducing in Gujarat.
On the other hand, the emergence of AAP and AIMIM are likely to lead to further splintering of Opposition votes.The Congress would need to come up with a massive overhaul in Gujarat.
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Abdulhafiz Lakhani
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