Analysis: Gujarat Congress’s Patidar Card(Hardik Patel)VS Modi-Shah Ace(C.R.Patil)

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By Abdul hafiz lakhani       Surat/Ahmedabad 
BJP top leadership is always known for their surprising decisions. Bharatiya Janata Party on Monday announced the appointment of parliamentarian C R Patil as President of Gujarat unit. This is a  shocker for many BJP leaders, raising questions about the importance of the patidar community, normally BJP’s vote bank. Gujarat Congress recently appointed young Patidar leader as working president in state unit just to woo Patel voters, on other hand, BJP’s new experiment with Patil as Chief of state unit bring lot of discussion in the party cadre. Though BJP President J.P. Nadda did this trick but nobody should forget that Gujarat is Modi–Shah land. 
 
In what seems like an attempt to “neutralize Patidar” factor from the state’s political landscape as well as growing “internal rifts between top leaders, the Bharatiya Janata Party on Monday announced the appointment of parliamentarian C R Patil as President of Gujarat unit.
 
Patil replaces Jeetu Vaghani, a Patel leader whose term had ended in August last year. Both CM Vijay Rupani and state BJP president are from non-patidar caste.To strike a balance between dominant caste groups, the BJP has generally opted for backward-Patel combination for CM and state president’s posts.
 
The development is said to have left the party workers “surprised” and equally “perplexed” considering the fact that Patil is not only considered a “non-Gujarati” but also hails from south Gujarat where the party stands the strongest.
 
  Patil’s appointment will neutralize some dominant groups and caste equations within the party. Moreover, while Modi, during his tenure had effectively quashed the old factions–of supports of Keshubhai Patel and Sanjay Joshi–he had failed to notice the growing discord between the two groups headed by Amit Shah and Anandiben Patel.  
 
Appointment of Patil, who was born in Jalgaon in Maharashtra, is being read as a precursor to further changes in the state politics. With the Congress appointing both Working President and Leader of Opposition Paresh Danani from the Patel community, appointment of Patil, a close confidante of Prime Minister Narendra Modi is being seen as an indication of the BJP’s strategy ahead of the next state Assembly polls in 2022.  
 
Patil, a former controversial constable who has been to jail at least twice in criminal cases, is 65 years old who has roots in Jalgaon, Maharashtra. He is replacing Jitendra Vaghani also known as Jitu, a Patidar leader, the most dominant community in the state. He is considered close to both-Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Union Home Minister Amit Shah and known for organising most of the grand events for the party.
 
 Patil, a third-time MP from Navsari about an hour drive from Surat, also looks after development works of Modi’s parliamentary constituencyVaranasi. “Everyone is surprised at his elevation to state party chief. He wasn’t on the list of probables. I think even he must be surprised as we all know that Patel was eyeing for a ministerial berth,” said a BJP source requesting not to be quoted. He added, “Uper sab decide karte hain, hum logon ko toh hawa bhi nahi lagti (People on top decide everything, we don’t get even wind of it).”
 
 Party sources said that “This is a result of infighting and Patil has been appointed as an attempt to neutralise those rifts and also possible rebellion over the appointment of any leader based on caste lines. Patil’s caste in the state is as insignificant as the chief minister Vijay Rupani’s (a jain).” 
 
Sources said that in a state dominated by Patidar voters, who can make or break any political equation, BJP is playing “smartly” by making caste redundant for the time being. BJP doesn’t have any immediate electoral challenge since Assembly polls are due in 2022. By appointing Patil, the party doesn’t seem to have bothered about upcoming Assembly bypolls on eight seats which were all held by Congress MLAs who resigned ahead of Rajya Sabha polls and many of them have joined BJP.
 The Congress, on the other hand, has given prominence to Patidar leader Hardik Patel by elevating him to the post of party’s working president. Patil started as a constable who had several run-ins with the law after his name was associated in an illegal liquor business and was suspended at least twice. He was a prime accused in a multi-crore scam known as “Diamond Jubilee Co-operative Bank” in which he is accused of defaulting bank payment of Rs50 crore to a Surat-based bank.
 
 He remained in jail for several months. After joining BJP in the early 90s, he continued to rise politically from president Surat district BJP to becoming MP from Navsari for the first time in 2014.
 
 “He is immensely popular in south Gujarat and is known as a down to earth leader and continues to be easily accessible. He is the first parliamentarian in the country whose office received ISO certification 9001:2008 for implementing government schemes. However, he doesn’t have a base outside south where BJP continues to be the strongest party,” said another BJP leader while adding that “we need to see how he takes everyone along.”  
 
Patil’s proximity to Modi can be gauged from the fact that he coordinates governance-related matters in PM’s constituency Varanasi. He is also the chairman of the Lok Sabha standing committee on Housing. However, his biggest challenge would be to establish himself in other parts of the state outside districts bordering Maharashtra.
 
Community factor
 
Gujarat’s politics is always  dominated by the Patel community before the rise of Narendra Modi and the influence of the Patidar or Patels was more in BJP as they remained loyal to the party. However, Modi gave equal importance to OBC communities in the state by giving them equal representation in the party and his government. This was his strategy to weaken the base of Congress as OBC community was the vote bank for party in the state.
 
Patel community, however, showed a swing in the mood and their political tending remained with Congress under the influence of quota agitation by Hardik Patel. The BJP, however, has managed to regain the confidence of Patidar voters with the formula of announcement of Economically Backward Class(EBC) quota in government jobs and education announced by PM Narendra Modi, and EBC commission established by Gujarat government.
 
Two major OBC communities Koli in Saurashtra and South Gujarat and Thakor in North Gujarat are the key factors they always play big part to  decide the fate of both the parties in the state. The community showers vote on the candidate who is one of them, and therefore the cherry-picking exercise in candidate selection for both parties will remain always  crucial.
 
(www.siyasat.net is Ahmedabad,Gujarat,India based website)