With Bihar being known for politics of social justice, caste factor is seen overwhelming other issues pushed by the political parties in times of elections.Muslims are banking on Congress
Abdul Hafiz Lakhani New Delhi
Danish Ahmed khan Patna
India is going to witness a heightened political activity at the end of 2020. Mainly because the term of many state assemblies are going to expire. There will be Bihar Assembly Election 2020 somewhere around October-November. West Bengal, Assam, Kerala, Puducherry, and Tamil Nadu state assemblies will also undergo re-election around April to May 2021.
For the time being, Bharatiya Janata Party is focussing its politics on the Bihar Election 2020. There is a popular saying in India’s politics, ‘Jaati Nahi Jaati’. Meaning that caste never goes out of the election in India. All the party has to do for a Bihar election is to fit perfectly in the caste arithmetic and have some top credible faces. Here we will analyze the caste composition of Bihar and how their votes make or break the Government of Bihar. For the sake of Bihar Election 2020, the analysis is from the point of NDA vs Mahagathbandhan.
Around 56% population of Bihar belongs to other backward classes. Amongst them, 16% are Yadav OBC and the rest 40% are considered to be Non-Yadav OBC. RJD supremo Lalu Prasad Yadav, as the name suggests has a very loyal vote bank of the 16% Yadav OBCs of Bihar. Whereas the Non-Yadav votes are distributed between Bharatiya Janata Party and the Janata Dal (United), who are currently holding the Bihar Government.
The Non-Yadav OBC votes continue to prefer the BJP-JDU alliance since 2009 Lok Sabha Elections. In addition to this, the 2014 Lok Sabha Election was a bit special because many young voters rose above the caste politics and voted for Narendra Modi. It is quite likely that this group will remain loyal to the BJP-JDU alliance for the Bihar Assembly Election 2020 as well.
Upper castes account for 15% of the population of the entire Bihar. They include Brahmins, Bhumihars, Rajputs, and Kayasthas. It might be because of the Hindu ideology of BJP, but the upper castes actually pour their votes for Bharatiya Janata Party. Since 1984, these votes have shifted from Congress to BJP and continue to remain so.
For the many past years, the upper caste of India had been completely neglected. Politics was much focussed around the OBC and SC/ST population. There was an attempt to create a social balance amongst all the caste, the balance shifted too much towards the other side and Upper Castes were completely sidelined. The ideologies of BJP have fascinated the upper caste of India and Bihar Election 2020 will witness a similar trend.
However, we must understand that 16% of Muslim votes in Bihar heavily oppose BJP. Therefore this vote base of BJP can get neutralized in Bihar Election 2020.
Bihar has about 16% Muslim population. Whereas Mahadalits+STs make up 15% of the overall population. Scheduled Tribes are only 1.3 percent.
BJP does not have much support amongst these categories. However, Nitish Kumar’s JDU gets some support from Dalit and Mahadalit community. In the case of Muslims, the Indian National Congress has a traditional vote bank for Bihar Election 2020. The Muslim community is banking much on Congress because of its tough stand against the Citizenship Amendment Act.
The Mahadalits and Dalits consist of 5% Dusadh, 2.8% Musahars, and others. Now that Manjhi has gone with Mahagathbandhan, 2.8% Musahar votes will go with that alliance. The other Dalit votes remain split between RJD, JDU, and LJP of Paswan.
As per the voting pattern of all these caste communities, it is evident that the current NDA alliance works well for the BJP, JDU, and LJP. If we take a broader look at the above estimates. BJP has the support of Upper Castes which is 15%. JDU has the support of 26% EBCs and few Dalit voters. BJP and JDU collectively have the support of other Non-Yadav OBCs. While Paswan gets the votes of Dusadhs that are 5%.
So approximately, the NDA alliance has 46% (or +1% Dalit) votes of the overall Bihar population. Based on the caste arithmetic, NDA stands at a very good place for Bihar Election 2020.
For the Mahagathbandhan, Lalu Yadav’s RJD gets to score 16% Yadav votes. Congress will score 16% of Muslim votes. Ram Manjhi of HAM will get backed by 2.8% Musahar votes. RLSP will get 6% votes from Kushwahas. Some of the Dalit votes as 2%. Therefore approximately 43% Bihar population is expected to back the Mahagathbandhan alliance for the Bihar election 2020. The remaining 10% of voters of Bihar do not have a fixed affiliation with any party and their votes depend on multiple factors.
NDA alliance can turn the remaining 10% voters in its favor by highlighting the welfare schemes, developmental work, Sushan Babu image of Nitish Kumar. Moreover, the 20 Lakh crore package announced by Modi Government is going to be significant for Bihar Assembly Election 2020.
Owaisi entry in Bihar may help BJP
The outcome of Bihar elections might be difficult to predict at the moment but one thing is ascertained and that is BJP is set to gain the most from AIMIM jumping in the fray.
Asaduddin Owaisi’s AIMIM is the only political party in India that exclusively represents the interests of Muslims on a national level. This might lead to a shift of the Muslim vote bank from Nitish Kumar’s JD(U), which will only help the BJP.
Owaisi is known for his outspoken behaviour and outrageous comments, which will lead to further polarisation in the state. Though AIMIM is contesting 32 seats, the atmosphere of polarisation might benefit the BJP by giving the party Hindu votes throughout the state. ( Views are personal)
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