The sudden US withdrawal from Afghanistan in a panic way, India feel unhappy and very discomfort situation
Dr Syed Mohammad Raghib siyasat.net
The geopolitical location of Afghanistan is very important and its future is entirely dependent upon its neighbours because Afghanistan is a land lock country. Most of its neighbours like Iran and Pakistan are having ports from where the goods reached to Afghanistan. In the last several years, it has been seen that most of the construction support, economic and humanitarian aid and even the US defence equipment received by Afghanistan mostly from Pakistan’s Karachi and some from Iranian ports. They were providing logistic support to Afghanistan, it’s not mean that the neighbours are not always constructive, but they have their own national interests from time to time. In the name of security, they always have been their covert agendas and interference nature to undermine the state. The main issue of Afghanistan is its poor economic situation, its security and forty years-long wars. First, ten years with the USSR and later within different fraction of waring groups, till the Taliban come to power in 1996 which end shortly in 2001 after the US attack on Afghanistan after 11 September attack on the US soil.
Afghanistan has been a hub of many ethnic groups that are dominated around Afghanistan’s boundaries, and some are in the trans-border area. In terms of representation of these ethnic groups, there is a different version; all are giving different data as per their ethnic interest for domination but Pashtun is dominated. Among all, Pashtun is the largest ethnic group which are dominant and spread in south and central Afghanistan. During the regime of the Taliban and till on, they are very much active in politics and visible.
The relations between Iran and Afghanistan were basically based on cultural similarity and geographical correlations. Iranian state language Persian is very common in Afghanistan, where they called it Dari, which is spoken by approximately half of the population. Earlier, it was part of the great Persian Empire, so they are also similar in terms of religious line. Afghanistan is a Sunni dominated country, but around 20 per cent of the Afghan population follow the same interpretation of Shia Islam and most of the Shia population are located near the Western side in Herat province and Central Afghanistan.
Iran was minutely observing the situation in Afghanistan since the invasion of the Soviet Union. Initially, Iran was very cooperative with mujahideen, who were fighting against Iran’s old enemy. During the war with Russia, Iran supported mujahideen ever logistically help them despite having differences with the US. The reason for Iranian action was to stop the imperialist and expansionist policy of Russia. But Iranian regime was also scary to see unstable Afghanistan, which could be a security threat for the country. During the regime of the Taliban, Iran was so upset because of the Taliban’s religious line against Shia Iran; the Taliban is Sunni and following Hanafi school of thought. Taliban regime was more close to Pakistan. They were educated and trained in Pakistani madrassas and seminaries near the Pakistan-Afghanistan border and pushed young madrasas scholar inside Afghanistan to participate with other warring groups.
More or less, it was a security dilemma for Iran to maintain stability and peace within its boundaries. Since 1990 drug trafficking and refugees in the shadow of the Taliban have been a significant drain on Iranian resources. Iranian strategy now, concerning Afghanistan, is threefold. As a priority, Iran seeks to minimise the causes and impact of such instability. Secondly, Iran wants to ensure the development of an Afghan regime friendly towards Iran and sympathetic to Iranian agendas and concerns. Thirdly, Iran wants to contribute to the reconstruction and regeneration of Afghanistan in a way that aids Iranian economic, trade and political interests.
The relations between Iran and Afghanistan was not so cordial since the Russian invasion of Afghanistan in 1979. The Russian troops’ presence was also a kind of misbalance in the region because it touches Iran border 921 kilometers. The other side, post-Soviet departure, the clash within the groups of Mujahidin started to capture the power in Kabul. Rashid Dostam, Gulbuddin Hikmatyar of Hezbi-i Islami, Burhanoddin Rabbani led by Jamaat-e Islami, and the breakaway Hizb-Islami led by Mulavi Yunus Khalis. Another group from north Panjsheer valley led by Ahmed Shah Masood was the main fraction. Finally, after four years of continuous fighting for power, a new government set up in Kabul under the leadership of Rabbani as a president of Afghanistan took the oath in 1992.
After the emergence of the Taliban, there was another confrontation with Iran on the western border of Afghanistan. Iran was very scary due to the huge increase of power of the Taliban who was backed by Pakistan and followed Sunni Islam. Apart from that, the main Iranian threat to “Taliban was about the development that goes far beyond the murder and holding of Iranian nationals and the Taliban thumbing their noses at them. For Iran, those events pale into insignificance in comparison to the threat that the Taliban can potentially pose to Iran’s national security and economic interest if Taliban manage to consolidate their hold on Afghanistan.
The Iranian government has good relations with the new government of Afghanistan led by Hamid Karzai, who took charge as a head of state on 22 December 2001. There was confusion in the Iranian political circles that Karzai is working for the Afghan people or serving American interest in Afghanistan.
Ashraf Ghani’s government was first elected on 20 September 2014 and elected again in September 2019, now continuing his second tenure. In April 2015, he visited Iran, met President Rouhani and Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, and discussed the bilateral issues, culture, and economic and security issues. Both leaders also discussed the issue of Afghan refugees who left Afghanistan during wartime. As per the data given by the UNHCR, around 3 million Afghan refugees are living in Iran, where they are not in good condition. Next year in 2016, the second topmost Afghan leader, CEO Abdullah-Abdullah visited Iran.
During the trip, several issues pertaining to the neighbours discusses including refugee issues, economic cooperation and Chabahar port. Both leaders also discussed the terrorism, security and the status of Iran-Afghan railways which was speedily working. Both countries signed MoU to cooperate in the field of minerals and their exploration and exploitation of mines in Afghanistan. As per the data available, Iran’s export to Afghanistan during that period stands at $3 billion, which accounts for 40 per cent of the total import of Afghanistan, which is due to the closeness and border shared by these two countries. The two countries also signed a trade deal worth $50 million in 2015, Iran was also exporting one million tons of diesel per annum, but the current situation in 2015 stands at 200,000 tons and 200,000 tons of LPG also to fulfil the demand of Afghan people. In the reconstruction of Afghanistan, Iran also helped because the stability of Afghanistan is in favour of Iran, economically and security point of you. After the long time wars, the country lost most of its glory, even infrastructure like roads and hospital buildings.
Iran is also very terrifying to see the huge presence of American forces in the neighbouring country in the name of an International peace force. The Iranian are scary towards its security as the Western powers especially like the US, and Britain has been enemy since long, during the time of nationalisation of oil by Mohammad Musaddiq in Iran.
As per the new situation and the regain of Taliban in power after twenty years, a new Afghan-Iran relationship will decide the future of the region. The Taliban is emerging from the decolonization of Afghanistan. The continued presence of foreign forces enforced people to think about expel them, so Taliban get public support as well. The way China, Russia and Pakistan is cooperating each other to formulate an inclusive government led by Taliban and other previous governments representatives. The absence of the US from Afghanistan is a big win for China and Russia, because Russia has now taken revenge from the US. For Pakistan it’s a big win, Islamabad now ready to play a big role and boost up their economy as well as security, which was badly challenged due to Indian presence in Afghanistan.
The recent changing paradigm in Afghanistan due to American President Joe Biden’s decision to withdraw the US forces from Afghanistan , and the US foreign policy shifts towards both countries Iran and Afghanistan. Even Taliban also wanted to have good relations with the US and want to continue the US’s embassy.
The sudden US withdrawal from Afghanistan in a panic way, India feel unhappy and very discomfort situation. The US and the NATO forces left Afghanistan after two decades will change the economic, political and security situation for India. New Delhi has tremendous concerns about the US pullout from Afghanistan and the continued Taliban advancement who almost capture eighty-five percent of the territory a big shock for New Delhi due to its massive investment of nearly $ 3 billion in aid and construction activities in the country and having good relations with the Afghan government.
India is also concerned about the Chabahar project, which connects with Afghanistan and Central Asian countries and the prospect of trade and commerce in the near future. Nearly 20 years after invading Afghanistan, the US military silently vacated Bagram, the biggest airfield in the country, on 3 July 2021. As per the MEA, Indian Embassy in Kabul and Consulates in Kandahar and Mazar-e-Sharif are open, but Consulates at Herat and Jalalabad were suspended in April 2020. For India, a prime concern is a security and Indian interest in Afghanistan. Amid this crisis, India’s quiet visit to meet with the Taliban in Doha, the meeting was a significant shift in India’s approach towards Afghanistan. (The author is Research Scholar at JNU, New Delhi. Views are personal)
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