Morgan Stanley Predicts Reliance Could Gain $100 Billion: According to Morgan Stanley, if new cash flow streams emerge and valuation multiples catch up, Reliance Industries Ltd. (RIL) might gain up to $100 billion to its market capitalization (m-cap) during its fourth monetisation cycle this century. According to the international brokerage, because monetisation 4.0 is bolstered by the economic upcycle, local demand, and less competition, it differs from earlier monetisation strategies. Over the last nearly three decades, the monetisation cycles have created value for RIL shareholders two to three times over, the statement stated.
“The $60 billion in investments made in 2022–2023—the shortest investment cycle for RIL since the 1990s—follows this monetisation. If ROCE remains above 10% for the next three years, investments in new energy, retail expansion to gain market share from the unorganised sector, and repurposing of existing energy businesses offer a long runway to deliver earnings growth consistently, according to Morgan Stanley.
Forecasting a 12 percent growth in earnings per share (EPS) compounded annually over FY24–27 with several vertical triggers, it stated: “We raise our EPS estimates fractionally for 2025, by 7 percent for 2026, and by 8 percent for 2027, reflecting recent telecom tariff hikes, oil prices, and refining margins. We have raised our price target from ₹3,046 to ₹3,540. Over the previous ten years, RIL has been a “show me” tale. However, once new income streams like fresh energy, higher phone tariffs, and chemical margins have been delivered, there has been a huge shift in the company’s market cap.
