IMD: June in Northwest India was the hottest since 1901

IMD: June in Northwest India was the hottest since 1901: The India Meteorological Department (IMD) announced on Monday that June in northwest India was the warmest since records began in 1901. This was due in part to the region’s devastating heat wave that killed at least 100 people in Delhi, Uttar Pradesh, and other areas.

The meteorological service noted that the 235.5 mm of rain that fell in a 24-hour period on June 28—the most since 1936—was exceptional and that it was difficult to accurately estimate the event because nearly 100 mm of rain fell in some areas of the city in a single hour.

June was a month of extremes, with an 11% monsoon rain deficit for the nation at the conclusion of the month—the seventh lowest amount since 2001.

IMD predicts heavy rain and flooding in many areas of the nation in July, particularly in the Western Himalayan foothills.

In July, IMD predicts a fairly active monsoon over the nation, with a long-term average of 106%. Most of the nation is forecast to see normal to above-average rainfall, with the exception of many areas in northeastern India, as well as some sections of the northwest, east, and peninsular India, where below-normal rainfall is predicted.

June is the warmest month in northwest India

The mean temperature over northwest India was 1.65°C above average, reaching 31.73°C. The region saw an average maximum temperature of 38.2°C, which is over 2°C above normal, and the lowest temperature of 25.44°C, which is 1.35°C above normal, was the second highest since 1901.

East and northeastern India likewise experienced its warmest June on record, with an average low temperature of 25.14°C at night—nearly 1°C above average.

Parts of the Indo-Gangetic plains, northwest India, central India, and north India had a range of 10 to 18 heatwave days in June, as opposed to the average three to four heatwave days.

There were 18 heat wave days in Uttar Pradesh, 13 in Bihar, 9 in Gangetic West Bengal, 14 in Delhi and Haryana, 11 in Punjab, and 10 in Himachal Pradesh.

In several regions of east, north, and central India, heatwaves lasting 20 to 38 days were reported between April and June. According to IMD, the regions with the highest frequency of heatwaves (20–38 days) were Rajasthan, MP, Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi, West and East UP, HP, Odisha, West Bengal, Jharkhand, Bihar, Saurashtra, and Kutch.

Severe spotty rain over Delhi

According to M. Mohapatra, director general of IMD, “heavy” rainfall was predicted for the plains of northwest India on July 27, but what transpired above Delhi was “impossible” to foretell.

Certain circumstances just appear unattainable. According to our statistics, between 5 and 6 am, certain stations reported up to 91 mm of rain. This intense rainfall event was limited in both space and time to specific areas of the city, such as the Safdarjung region. Therefore, it is undoubtedly a difficulty, but we are working to address it,” said Mohapatra. He also mentioned that in order to improve the forecasting of excessive rain, three more radars will be added to the current three; additionally, automatic rain gauges will be installed; and an urban flood warning system will be put into place.

But ultimately, he claimed, the development of the monsoon was the key reason it was a mesoscale catastrophe.

Since 2019, we have enhanced our heatwave warning system by roughly 10 to 20 percent. However, the atmosphere’s ability to hold more moisture improves when abnormally warm weather persists for a few days, which can lead to unusually high rain soon after. That is the effect of climate change. The atmosphere’s ability to hold moisture rises by 7% with each degree of warming, according to Mohapatra.

Possibility of heavy rain in July

It is quite possible that July 2024 will see above-average monthly rainfall nationwide (>106 % of LPA). Based on data from 1971 to 2020, the LPA of rainfall for the entire nation in July is approximately 280.4 mm. With the exception of some areas in northeastern India and a few regions in the northwest, east, and southeast of the Indian peninsula, where below-average rainfall is forecast, most of the nation is expected to see normal to above-normal rainfall in July.

With the exception of a few regions in the northwest, the surrounding areas of central India, and a few isolated pockets in the southeast of the Indian peninsula, where normal to below-normal minimum temperatures are predicted, July minimum temperatures are most likely to be above-average across a large portion of the nation. Mohapatra stated, “When it’s cloudy, warmer than normal nights are expected.”

With the exception of the west coast, the maximum temperature is predicted to be between normal and below average in several areas of northwest and south peninsular India. There is a good chance of above-average maximum temperatures in several areas of central, east, and northeast India as well as along the west coast.

The foothills of the Western Himalayas and central India are more likely to experience rainfall and flooding. However, as a company, we don’t offer flood forecasts,” Mohapatra continued.

Over the equatorial Pacific, neutral El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions are now being observed. In the western and central equatorial Pacific Oceans, the sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are above average, while in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, they are below average. According to the most recent Monsoon Mission Climate Forecast System (MMCFS), La Nina conditions are probably going to form in the second part of the monsoon season.