Now, it remains to be seen how much weightage Iran gives to India to meddle into Afghanistan.
Syed Ali Mujtaba siyasat.net
India’s External Affairs Minister Jaishanker was in Iran, apparently searching space for India in the peace process in Afghanistan. Well it’s the magnanimity of Iranian leadership to meet India’s Foreign Minister, as New Delhi is on the list of non-friends, if not enemies. The reason being India had voted against Iran, in the United Nations. India’s desperation over the developments in Afghanistan is evident because knowing well the facts on the ground, the PMO has sent the External Affairs Minister to go to Tehran and make friends with Iranians.
Why was Iran India’s External Affairs Minister Jaishanker destination, why not Moscow or Riyadh or UAE? Well, India has lost Moscow’s cover, since it stopped buying defence equipment from Russia. India has also distanced from Moscow since it abandoned the socialist path and has been following the capitalist path, making anti-working-class laws. India’s domestic compulsions that have been pushing for making India a Hindu religious state further distances Russia, as the two countries are not on the same ideological plane.
India’s open preferences for anti- Islam anti-Muslim agenda at home do not placate the Wahabis and Salafis brand of Islam of the Mid-East as well. This leaves India with the option to court Shiite Iran. The Minister has forgotten the Iranian fatwa on the ‘Satanic Verses’ and in his learned vision, Shiite Iran will tolerate Hindus’ slurs on Islam and anti-Muslim campaign in India.
Notwithstanding the facts, the fact remains that India wants to take Iran’s help to protect its interests in Afghanistan. How far Iran will serve India’s wishful interest in Afghanistan remains to be seen, nonetheless India’s External Affairs Minister had gone to Tehran to break the ice, searching for space in the Afghan peace process.
There is no denying the fact that the US’s exit from Afghanistan has brought instability to the entire region. The geopolitical situation in that region is in flux. The military vacuum created by the US retreat has moved regional powers to move into Afghanistan. The idea of a regional solution to Afghanistan has always had a political appeal, but the divergent regional strategic vision has limited the peace prospects in Afghanistan.
Even as a sustainable regional consensus remains elusive in Afganistan, Russia, Pakistan, and China have formed a troika to deal with the situation developing in Afghanistan. They have left India out in the Afghan peace deal, and this has made ‘Viswa-Guru’ running to Iran, searching for space in the peace process in Afghanistan.
Who are the regional players in the Afghan peace process?
Pakistan – The first and foremost regional actor is India’s arch-rival Pakistan. It was the frontline state for the US from 1979 to 1990 and helped the US build the military machine called ‘Mujahedeen’ to oust the Soviet invaders. It was at the behest of the US; Pakistan created the backup force called the Taliban to replace the Mujahedeen at a later stage. After the withdrawal of the US from Afghanistan in 1994, Pakistan played a key role in placing the Taliban on the hot seat of power in Kabul. 1994-2001, Taliban rule in Afghanistan, saw Afghanistan becoming heaven of Anti – American forces, leading to an attack on Twin Tower in New York on September 11, 2001.
This triggered a direct invasion of the US into Afghanistan. Pakistan was once again made a frontline state by the US in its war against terror. The US was successful in ousting the Taliban and physically supported an Afghan regime that the US placed in Kabul for the next twenty years. However, having failed to bring stability to Afghanistan, the US bought peace with the Taliban and made an exit from the place it desired to bring enduring freedom. This has made Pakistan is once again relevant in the Afghan peace deal because it has been handling the Mujahedeen and the Taliban for from last forty years or so.
Iran – Iran is another neighbor that has close involvement with Afghanistan. This is because Persian being the court language and well understood and spoken in Afghanistan all over and second, a large Shia population is living in Northern provinces of Afghanistan. Iran has been traditionally protecting the interests of its population and most of the ruling elite in Afghanistan is of the Shia sect. Iran can’t forfeit the historical role it has played in the political stability in Afghanistan.
Tajikistan – Uzbekistan – Turkmenistan etc. – These central Asian republics share borders with Afghanistan. They too have their ethnic population residing in Afghanistan. These multiethnic groups in Afghanistan have a support base in central Asian republics. As a result, Tajikstan – Uzbekistan – Turkmenistan has a decisive role in the future political settlement in Afghanistan.
Russia – Even though Russia is an extra-regional power since 1979 it’s been playing a huge role in the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. After the 1990s, Russia has been on the Taliban side to oust the US occupation of Afghanistan. It is well known that Russia has been providing military assistance to the Taliban to sustain its anti-US military campaign. Therefore, Russia has a huge interest in shaping the peace process in Afghanistan.
China – China has emerged as a new player in the peace process in Afghanistan. It wants to enter into the power vacuum left behind by the US. China shares a border with Afghanistan and there are unconfirmed reports that say that it has been training the Taliban, providing them arms and ammunition to fight against American occupation forces. China offers the Taliban the recognition of its alternative vision of governance that does not conform to the Western model. China is willing to recognize the Taliban as the legitimate ruler of Afghanistan. Just like Myanmar, China is ready to protect the Taliban regime against any western sanctions. China is aware of its role as a regional player and has a huge stake in bringing stability to Afghanistan. China’s main interest is to make its belt and road policy run into central Asian republics. It wants China- Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) to be extended beyond Pakistan and through Afghanistan enter into the central Asian Republics. Besides, China is keen on mining activity, that’s in abundance in Afghanistan and remains unexplored. All these grand designs of China are quite palatable to the Taliban. They are receptive to the Chinese investments in Afghanistan as this may bring all-round development to their country. So, China has a huge stake in peace and stability in Afghanistan.
India– All these factors have been increasingly pushing India into a geopolitical tight spot in Afghanistan. This is because the era of prolonged peace in Afghanistan secured by the US military presence has come to an end. It means new constraints on India’s ability to operate inside Afghanistan. As such India’s lack of direct physical access to Afghanistan and that underlines the importance of having effective regional partners for playing peacemakers.
But who could be India’s regional partners? Certainly Pakistan and China is ruled out because of the current political dispensation in Delhi sees the two countries as enemies of India. As a result, New Delhi is intensifying its engagement with Iran. In fact, India had made great preparation to hold Afghanistan through Iran, committing to build Chabhar port. However, India voted against Iran at the United Nations giving weightage to the US over Iran and that has turned to be its undoing. Now, it remains to be seen how much weightage Iran gives to India to meddle into Afghanistan.
India has invested billions of dollars after the US invasion of Afghanistan. It has constructed a new Parliament building in Kabul. India has also built dams, roads, schools, universities, hospitals, and sports stadiums in different parts of Afghanistan. This means India has to gate crash into Afghanistan to safeguard its interests. That is the reason the current leadership in Delhi is courting Iran, expecting it to facilitate India’s entry into Afghanistan. However, this is subjected to numerous ifs and buts.
So, will India lose all its investments in Afghanistan, which run into billions of rupees? Certainly not! India has a history of engaging the Taliban. Indian officials had first direct contact with the Taliban in 2013, when they issued a visa to senior Taliban leader Abdul Salam Zaeef for attending a conference in Delhi. Further in 2018, some senior Taliban leaders met with Indian representatives in Moscow. Indian officials and Taliban leaders held a meeting in Doha in June 2021. It was reported that the Taliban leader Mullah Baradar was in contact with former Afghan President Hamid Karzai, who was pushing Russia, Iran, and India to start a dialogue with the Taliban. Taliban group was aware that India was providing military support to the US-backed Afghan government and it had warned Delhi to remain impartial. The Taliban leadership had made it clear that they would not interfere in Kashmir to suit India’s interests.
As a result, India has to rethink its stand on dealing with the Taliban if it likes to protect its interest in Afghanistan. Since India is in no position to dictate terms to the Taliban it has to evolve a new policy that is different from the current policy of supporting the US-backed Afghan regime. India’s new policy should not be based on Pakistan and China’s moves in Afghanistan. India has to acknowledge the fact that it cannot match the reach and depth of Pakistan and China that has land boundaries with Afghanistan.
The good thing is, Taliban has signaled that it will not be a proxy for anyone and will pursue its independent policies. This gives India the opportunity to deal exclusively with the Taliban. Taliban has already given assurance that it will not support Pakistan-backed anti-India terrorist groups from its soil. It remains to be seen that India gives an assurance to refrain from Muslim bashing that’s currently going on to build a new relationship with the Taliban.
There is no denying the fact Taliban remains a major force to reckon with in Afghanistan. There cannot be any peace in Afghanistan without Taliban playing a central role in the Afghan peace process. At the same time, Taliban cannot rule the whole of Afghanistan without accommodating the interests of other groups in that country.
If India has to protect its investments in Afghanistan, it has to directly deal with the Taliban. India has to remain active and patient watching the evolving situation in Afghanistan. There may be many opportunities for India that may bacon it from the front door in the Afghan peace process, and this need not be through Iran. Certainly for this, India has to bottle up its own Taliban!(The writer is a journalist based in Chennai)
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