By Abdul hafiz Lakhani
Gandhinagar: Close on the heels of deaths of two Rajya Sabha members– Ajay Bharadwaj( BJP) and Ahmed Patel (Congress) have changed political maths again in Gujarat.After the death of Ahmed Patel last week, the BJP was confident of winning the seat comfortably in the re-election. However, with the death of Bharadwaj, the Congress is now hopeful of retaining Ahmed Patel’s seat.
According to key sources in the government, if a re-election for both the vacant RS seats is held simultaneously, the BJP will win both only if there is cross-voting from opposition MLAs. If the Election Commission of India decides to announce separate re-elections, the BJP will easily win both on the basis of its numbers in the assembly. “The BJP will certainly prefer that re-elections to the two seats be held separately,” a source said
Looking at party-wise strength in State assembly and also considering that two vacant Rajya Sabha seats of late Ahmedbhai and Abhaybhai will witness by-polls with two separate notifications and separate polling for each of two seats, it is certain that BJP will win both seats. In the regular election of Rajya Sabha seats, polling take place jointly through single notification. However in case of by-polls of Rajya Sabha, polling take place separately for each seat
. So suppose if there’s a regular Rajya Sabha election of two seats at this juncture, and there are only two candidates, then both will win unopposed. If there are three candidates then as per the present 180-strength of the assembly, minimum 61 first preference votes would be required for each of two successful candidates, while a third candidate would lose the election. As Congress has 65 + party aligned independent MLA Jignesh Mewani, it can get one seat, if at least 61 of its MLAs cast votes perfectly as per party’s mandate.
Coming to two-seat by-polls in Gujarat, the candidate who would replace Ahmed Patel will have only three years term, or say just the leftover period of Ahmed Patel’s 6-year full term. Ahmed Patel was elected to Rajya Sabha in August 2017. The candidate who would replace Abhay Bharadwaj will have almost full six years term as Abhaybhai had taken oath in later half of July. So one successful candidate will have full term and the other would have half term
At present, the BJP has 111 MLAs in the Gujarat assembly, and like in the recent RS election, it is likely to get the votes of two BTP MLAs and one NCP MLA. The Congress, which has the strength of 65, could get one additional vote of independent MLA Jignesh Mevani. To win an RS seat, a party will require 60 first-preference votes from the MLAs.“Even with the help of two BTP and one NCP votes, the BJP tally will reach 114. It will require six more first-preference votes for getting both of its nominees elected,” said the source. “Once again, the BJP might look at the prospect of Congress MLAs cross-voting or resigning before the elections.”Sources added that the Congress will also deploy all its might to ensure that it is able to retain Ahmed Patel’s seat. “In the recent RS election, the BJP snatched one seat from the Congress on the basis of resignations by Congress MLAs,” the source said.(www.siyasat.net is Ahmedabad, Gujarat, India based website, powered by Gujarat siyasat, a fortnightly)
