Gujarat has traditionally been a two-party- BJP and Congress state, now AAP and AIMIM will also play their cards in coming elections. They may divide Muslim votes so Muslim representation may nosedive
By Abdul Hafiz Lakhani Ahmedabad
Gujarat is the most important state for BJP as two biggest faces of party are from this state – Modi and Shah. Now, Gujarat Assembly election which is slated in December, 2022, once again the BJP fashions the campaign as a battle uniting Hindus across castes against their common enemy, the state’s Muslims. Recent statements from CM Rupani, Deputy CM Nitin Patel and BJP state Chief C.R. patil Virtually were laced with overtly toxic anti-Muslim innuendo.
In 2017, the BJP won 99 of 182 seats, its lowest tally while in power, because of the backlash of the Patidar community’s agitation for reservations.
Three of the five Muslim candidates fielded by the Congress emerged victorious in the Gujarat Assembly elections in 2017.The BJP did not put up any Muslim candidate where the minority community accounts for 9.67% of the population.
The Congress fielded three candidates in urban seats. The nominees romped home in Jamalpur-Khadia and Dariapur in Ahmedabad, apart from Wankaner in Rajkot. The candidates in Surat-West and Vagra in Bharuch lost to their BJP rivals.
Javid Peerzada (Wankaner), Gyasuddin Sheikh (Dariapur) and Imran Khedawala (Jamalpur-Khadia) are the candidates who made it to the Assembly in 2017.The Congress wrested the Jamalpur-Khadia seat from the BJP.
Congress, which earlier used to be generous enough to field 12 to 15 Muslim candidates, now allots tickets to a handful. This definitely is one of the reason, but not the only one for the dwindling Muslim representation in the state Assembly. There was a time when people from other communities would vote for Muslim candidates. The society was not vertically divided as it is today. Even in seats like Thasara, Gandhinagar, Balasinor or Palitana, Muslim candidates have been elected for the Assembly elections.
However, in the last three decade, the society has been reshaped. Now, the cash rich and socially powerful community is demanding a lion’s share in power, whereas Muslims, who constitute 9.67 per cent of the population have been marginalised.
Political analysts feel that post 1985, society has been polarized. Events like Ram Rathyatra, Babri demolition, post demolition riots in 1992, Godhra carnage, 2002 riots had definitely created bitterness, but the Sachar Committee report added fuel to the fire. Muslim voters, prior to 1985 voted for Muslim candidates because their services were appreciated but that is now a thing of the past.
At present, the Congress, which backed the Patidars, is not in a good shape, struggling even to get a full-time president for the state unit. The BJP looks to be in a strong position after winning the local body elections in March. Currently, 90 per cent of state’s territory is under the BJP’s control.
On the other hand, buoyed by the winning as many as 27 seats in local body polls in Surat held earlier this year, Aam Aadmi Party has now trained its guns on Gujarat Assembly elections scheduled for December 2022. In the Surat Municipal Corporation elections held in February 2021, the BJP got the highest seats (93 out of 120) but AAP won as many as 27 seats emerging as the opposition. Congress went out for a duck.
So now, AAP is confident that it can lure the enterprising Gujaratis by offering freebies as it does in Delhi. This, despite the disastrous governance by the Delhi government led by AAP supremo Arvind Kejriwal himself. To make some noise ahead of the elections, AAP has roped in moneybag realtor Mahesh Savani, who is accused of kidnapping and extortion, and a Gujarati journalist Isudan Gadhvi, perhaps to offset the venom that has come out of its leader Gopal Italia.
Gujarat has traditionally been a two-party state – people are either BJP (or in recent times Modi) loyalists or Congress loyalists. There is no in-between. This is why there is no significant regional party. Further, Since 1998 when Keshubhai Patel led the BJP to victory, Gujarat has always had a BJP government. An entire generation has grown up in only BJP ruled stated. So with AAP jumping into the arena, here is what we can expect.
Kejriwal may have promised that he will change politics, but he never said he would change it for the better. This is why caste politics is being raised. You see, Congress in Gujarat was the pioneer of caste politics. Former Chief Minister and tall Congress leader Madhavsinh Solanki had brought in the ‘KHAM (Kshatriya, Harijan, Adivasi, Muslim)’ theory for vote bank politics.
AAP is just taking it forward. Ahead of the 2017 Gujarat assembly elections, AAP had sided with the Patidar community where now Congress leader Hardik Patel was leading an agitation for reservation as OBC community. Italia is one such Patidar leader who was a close Hardik Patel aide and now President of the Aam Aadmi Party in Gujarat.
An RSS leader in Surat while speaking to siyasat.net said that Aam Aadmi Party has tried to consolidate the Patidar and Muslim voters. Patidars are disgruntled with BJP and Muslims has been a traditional vote bank for Congress. “Aam Aadmi Party is not a direct threat, but it will definitely create a dent and BJP will have to fight harder to retain the power. It is an unprecedented 25-year anti-incumbency the BJP is facing. Gujaratis may just want to give AAP a chance,” he said.
A senior journalist from Gujarat while speaking to this scribe said that it would be too much of a fantasy to imagine AAP will actually form the government in Gujarat. “AAP is making disgruntled BJP supporters join its party by creating a ‘mahaul‘. Kejriwal wanted to tap into the Patel vote bank during the Patidar agitation. There is an artificial discontent amongst the Patels where they want to become leaders themselves, like Hardik Patel, who played the caste card to emerge as a leader. Patel community got carried away by his rhetorics but when he joined Congress, they were disillusioned,” he said.
He further added that in the 2017 elections, the Patidar community voted for Congress instead of BJP. However, this time around, they may vote for AAP, making Congress come out as a bigger loser. “AAP is relying on the 25-years anti-incumbency. Kejriwal thinks people are fatigued by BJP presence. For the first time in 2017, the BJP seat tally went below 100 even though there was a slight increase in vote share,” he added that while AAP may get a couple of seats, those 10-15 seats it may win would be traditional Congress seats.
“There is no sign of revival of Congress in Gujarat,” an RSS leader from Surat said. He, however, expressed fears that while AAP and Congress may not form government in Gujarat on their own, if BJP fails to cross the majority mark, the two parties may forge an alliance and come to power. “If Congress can ally with Shiv Sena in Maharashtra, what can stop it from joining hands with AAP,” he said.
The BJP in Gujarat, however, is unperturbed with Aam Aadmi Party making noise. “We do not take them seriously. They are too insignificant to even be considered a real threat. They must fight elections as India is a democracy and if they do win seats, good for them. Robust democracy is important. But Gujaratis are logical and hardworking people. These promises of free electricity which has voltage fluctuation other issues won’t sit well with Gujaratis,” a senior BJP leader told here.
Gujarat has traditionally been a two-party state. Till Keshubhai Patel formed the first-ever BJP government in the state in 1995, Gujarat had only one non-Congress Chief Ministers. Babubhai Patel of Janata Party, who was CM for a little less than a year in 1975 during Indira Gandhi imposed Emergency and again for about three years in 1977.
In 1996, Shankersinh Vaghela, a former BJP leader quit the party and floated his own political party, Rashtriya Janata Party. With the external support of Congress he became the second non-Congress Chief Minister of Gujarat. He had to step down after Congress threatened to withdraw support and another RJP leader Dilip Parikh became the CM. Later, the party was merged into Congress.
In 2007, Gordhan Zadafia, who was the Gujarat Home Minister when the 2002 Gujarat riots broke out, floated his own political party Mahagujarat Janata Party. In 2012, ahead of state assembly elections, Keshubhai Patel floated a political party, Gujarat Parivartan Party. Zadafia later merged his party with Gujarat Parivartan Party which eventually merged into the BJP.
Since March 1998, Gujarat has only had a BJP chief minister.
While it may be too soon to make predictions on who may win the elections, but one thing seems sure that Congress may end up being pushed further into oblivion as BJP may continue to gain from AAP’s entry.
All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) will jump into the fray in the 2022 Gujarat assembly election. Apart from new entrants Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) and All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM), now Mamata Banerjee’s party is also looking for a share of the spoils in the coming assembly election. A state body has been formed and a convener has been named for the party’s Gujarat unit. The party has decided to contest alone in the next assembly election. AITC Gujarat convener Jitendra Khadayta said the state body will soon be formed.
“Trinamool Congress will contest the 2021 election with full force. It has been decided by the party high command that Trinamool Congress will contest as many seats as possible in the 2022 Gujarat assembly election. Our party will not have a tie-up with any other party,” newly appointed state AITC convener Jitendra Khadayta said.
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