Congress vote percentage in UP 2019 Lok Sabha was a mere 6.36 percent while BJP was nearly 50 percent. BSP got more than 19 percent and SP 18 percent. Congress’ vote-share was 6.2 percent in 2017 assembly polls when it fought in alliance with Samajwadi Party, which had got 22 percent votes. BSP, which fought alone, had got a little more than 22 percent votes.
Lucknow: siyasat.net web desk
With nearly two years to go for the Uttar Pradesh assembly elections, battle lines are already being drawn in this electorally-crucial state. The Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) is crossing swords with the Congress and is seemingly moving closer to the BJP. While BSP is led by former Chief Minister Mayawati, the Congress general secretary in charge of UP Priyanka Gandhi Vadra is the principal Congress challenger.
The sharp exchanges between Mayawati and Priyanka in recent days are indicative of intense rivalry between them. Mayawati’s BSP had reached its peak with the rainbow coalition of Muslims-Dalits-Brahmins which was broadly the vote bank of the Congress, too.
While the Muslims now prefer SP, the Brahmins are now largely with the BJP while the Dalit vote bank remains essentially with the BSP. Clearly, there are hints that caste loyalties are not sacrosanct and that they can shift.
The Congress is banking on Priyanka’s charisma to woo the Dalits but Mayawati reckons that in combination with BJP the BSP would manage to tilt the scales in their favour.
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There is intense rivalry between the parties and on its part, the BJP reckons that the alliance with BSP will give them the cutting edge. In recent years, the Muslims have deserted the BSP and any alliance with BJP will alienate them further.
An added incentive for BSP to align with the BJP is the hope that the disproportionate assets cases against Mayawati would be soft-pedalled. All in all, an interesting battle-royale lies ahead in the country’s electorally most significant state.
In such a situation, if any of the three opposition parties — SP, BSP, Congress — want to have even a semblance of a chance at defeating the BJP, they have only one option. A strong presidential-style campaign that makes it clear to every voter that the election is about deciding who’s better CM material: Yogi or Akhilesh? Yogi or Mayawati? Yogi or Ajay Kumar Lallu?
As is obvious, the weakest possibility there is Ajay Kumar Lallu. He’s a grassroots leader, but even if he has the potential to become a popular-statewide face, the looming shadow of Priyanka Gandhi won’t let him.
There is thus no option for Priyanka Gandhi but to state in as many words that she is the Congress party’s chief ministerial candidate in Uttar Pradesh. If she fails to do that, then despite Yogi’s best efforts to promote her, the Congress party will still get fewer seats than the largest bus in Rajasthan.
By having her Communist student leader aide tweet about UP in shuddh Hindi, she can make media headlines but it doesn’t get the Congress party any traction in the streets of UP. By declaring herself as the CM candidate, Priyanka Gandhi will send out a strong message to voters in the state that the Congress party is serious about UP. That is what it will take for UP voters to even start thinking about the Congress as an option.
Priyanka Gandhi as a declared Congress CM candidate, spending at least five days a week in UP, will be Yogi Adityanath’s dream come true. He will do his best to make sure the state’s political conversation is all about Yogi versus Priyanka. The BSP and SP will be sidelined to the extent that voters won’t be able to tell who the BJP’s main opponent is.
(www.siyasat.net is Ahmedabad,Gujarat,India based website)
