In last 2017 assembly elections, a split in the Muslim votes and confusion on the ability of candidates to take on the BJP are key reasons for the disastrous performance of both the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and Samajwadi Party-Congress alliance
By Abdul Hafiz Lakhani New Delhi
UP is going to assembly polls early next year.
Muslim voters, who account for nearly 20 per cent of Uttar Pradesh’s population, can make or mar the electoral prospects of key political parties vying for the top slot in the upcoming Assembly elections.
Minorities play a crucial role in at least 125 of 403 constituencies. Muslims are considered the traditional votebank of the ruling Samajwadi Party.
As the Assembly elections draw near, BJP too seems to be re-drawing its strategy by roping in as many Muslim voters as possible before the elections, and by showing itself as the primary opponent of SP.
In coming election, The AIMIM is likely to contest 100 out of the 403 assembly seats in Uttar Pradesh where Muslims constitute around 19 per cent of the population. They are estimated to hold a decisive sway in around 50 seats (where they make up for over 30 per cent of voters) while they have a significant presence in over 130 seats. But it’s not these numbers (of seats that Muslim voters can sway) that excite the BJP leadership.
Recently UP CM Yogi Adityanath suddenly finds Owaisi a ‘national leader’ with ‘janadhaar’ , it seems that he has decided to project Owaisi as his principal challenger/adversary, no matter what Mayawati, Akhilesh and others stand for.
In last 2017 assembly elections, a split in the Muslim votes and confusion on the ability of candidates to take on the BJP are key reasons for the disastrous performance of both the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and Samajwadi Party-Congress alliance. This was true especially in western Uttar Pradesh, where the minority community is dominant in many districts.
In more than two dozen seats, the division of Muslim votes benefited the saffron party — even in communally polarised areas of Muzaffarnagar and Shamli, the minority community did not make up its mind about the winning candidate.
For decades now, either overtly or covertly, electoral politics in Uttar Pradesh ultimately has boiled down to the caste and communal equations.
Starting from the 2014 Lok Sabha polls, the BJP in Uttar Pradesh got its caste equations right and in the 2017 assembly elections saw a landslide victory. The BJP’s formidable consolidation of the upper castes, non-Yadav OBCs and the non-Jatav Dalits, all under the larger umbrella of Hindutva, had worked perfectly well. The party got almost 40 per cent of the popular vote, which was around 25 per cent higher than the votes polled in 2012.
The Samajwadi Party on the other hand was reduced to 47 seats from 224 in 2012, and almost 22 per cent vote share. The mighty Bahujan Samaj Party could get only 19 seats and the Congress just seven with less than six per cent vote share. Clearly, while the SP was to an extent able to preserve its Muslim-Yadav vote base, Mayawati was left mostly with her core Jatav-Dalit vote and the Congress without any base.
In today’s political scenario, while no opposition party can openly dare to play the minority card, the fact remains that it is desperately needed by all non-BJP players.
Constituting around 19 per cent of the state’s population, Muslims are a large vote bank, and in their biggest concern to counter the BJP, they are also seen as a big, homogenous voting bloc. Even in the often-discussed M-Y formula, Yadavs are estimated to be only between six to eight per cent.
Lucknow-based sociologist Dr Pradeep Sharma says, “In the context of the 2022 assembly polls, Muslims can play the role of the magnet for any castes or communities that may have been antagonised by the BJP.”
He explains that in the politics of competing caste aspirations and amid reports of Brahmin discontent and grumblings within the most backward castes under chief minister Yogi Adityanath’s rule, opposition parties will clearly hope to capitalise on them around the firm Muslim vote base.
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