Earth may momentarily surpass the global warming threshold in 2024. The national weather service of Britain, the Met Office, has warned that as early as next year, the global average temperature may momentarily rise above the crucial 1.5 degrees Celsius.
According to Reuters, this prediction is made at a critical juncture, as world leaders are debating the urgency of addressing climate change at the COP28 climate summit in Dubai.
The current year is expected to be the warmest on record, according to the Met Office, and predictions suggest that 2024 may set even higher temperature records.
The predicted range for the average global temperature is 1.34C to 1.58C above late 19th-century pre-industrial levels. This possible temperature increase is ascribed to the combined effects of a strong El Nino event and the continuing trend of global warming, which has seen an increase of 0.2C every decade.
The head of the Met Office’s forecasting department, Nick Dunstone, emphasized that although a rise of one year above 1.5C does not indicate a breach of the long-term average warming threshold, it does highlight the urgency of taking immediate action to cut greenhouse gas emissions.
Dunstone said, “For the first time, we are forecasting a reasonable chance of a year temporarily exceeding the 1.5C mark,” adding that it would not be against the goals of the Paris Agreement if it happened.
These worries were validated last month by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), which estimated that this year’s warming will be about 1.4C above pre-industrial levels. The WMO also emphasized that recent extreme weather and unheard-of ice loss are signs of impending consequences from a persistent violation of the 1.5C limit.
A group of experts from prestigious universities such as Columbia University and NASA have cautioned that the planet may surpass the 1.5C barrier this decade.
Furthermore, the world is likely to surpass the 1.5C threshold in the 2030s if significant mitigation efforts are not made, according to a number of emissions models from the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
The COP28 conference offers a vital chance for countries to pledge to more aggressive action to combat climate change and avert the long-term effects of going over the 1.5C threshold, as the world comes to terms with the reality of these predictions.
